Poll: Trump LEADS Biden in seven key swing states

05/02/2024 / By Laura Harris

A recent Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll reveals that former President Donald Trump is leading over President Joe Biden in seven key swing states, even with the inclusion of third-party candidates.

According to swing state polls conducted from April 25 to 29 among 1,000 registered voters in each state, Trump maintains an edge over Biden in Arizona (48 to 44 percent), Georgia (47 to 44 percent), Michigan (45 to 44 percent), Nevada (45 to 44 percent), North Carolina (47 to 42 percent), Pennsylvania (47 to 45 percent) and Wisconsin (47 to 45 percent). The figures indicate a tight race but the results are consistent with previous polling that shows Trump leading Biden in most of these states.

Even when the poll has an option for “other” candidates, including independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump’s lead over Biden remains significant. For instance, in Arizona, Trump leads Biden 44 to 40 percent, while in Georgia, it is 45 to 39 percent also in favor of the former president. The margin is narrower in Michigan, with Trump at 43 percent and Biden at 42 percent. In Nevada, Trump leads 42 to 37 percent. North Carolina shows Trump ahead 46 to 37 percent, Pennsylvania 45 to 41 percent and Wisconsin 45 to 40 percent.

Independent voters favor Trump in Arizona (48 to 38 percent), Michigan (44 to 35 percent), Nevada (43 to 37 percent), Pennsylvania (49 to 33 percent) and North Carolina (41 to 38 percent), while Biden leads among independents in Georgia (42 to 38 percent) and Wisconsin (44 to 41 percent).

Emerson College associate professor of political communication Spencer Kimball, who also serves as the executive director of Emerson College Polling, commented on the consistency of the presidential race in these swing states since tracking began last November.

“The state of the presidential election in swing states has remained relatively consistent since Emerson and The Hill started tracking them last November,” said Kimball. “The share of undecided voters has reduced and Biden gained ground in Georgia and Nevada, narrowing the gap, while Trump has maintained a slight edge on Biden in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”

Trump consistently holds a favorable advantage over Biden in most polls

Recent surveys conducted by different polling organizations show a consistent pattern: Trump holds a slight advantage over Biden in most cases. For instance, a recent Rasmussen Reports poll, which surveyed 1,099 likely voters between March 31 and April 2, found that 49 percent of respondents support Trump while only 41 percent support Biden.

Just like the Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey, this poll reveals that despite the presence of third-party candidates, Trump still leads Biden. Forty-five percent of respondents support Trump compared to 38 percent for Biden. Three independent candidates – socialist philosopher and Baptist minister Cornel West, Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Kennedy – collectively captured 12 percent of support.

The poll also reveals the unexpected appeal of Trump among groups that traditionally lean Democratic. In head-to-head matchups, Trump secures a significant portion of the Black vote with 48 percent compared to 39 percent for Biden. The former president also leads among Hispanic voters with 48 percent supporting him, while Biden only got 37 percent. (Related: Trump LEADS Biden by 8 points in latest Rasmussen Reports poll.)

VoteRepublican.news has more on why Trump is winning and Biden is failing.

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